Friday, September 12, 2008
Electoral Map favors Mac and Palin...why????
ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP
ESTIMATED (September 12 2008) McCain-Palin vs Obama-Biden
HISTORICAL (2004) Bush-Chaney vs. Kerry-Edwards
First time this year 270 for Mac and less for Obama 268 but it is close….many states will be decided by 1 or 2%....WOMAN’S VOTE WILL BE DECISIVE….MacCain is leading in many key categories thanks to SARAH PALIN.
Iowa of course went for Bush in 2004….the west and rural areas of the state (Souix City) are strongly pro-life. This state is not a sure thing for Obama anymore than Ohio is. Some countries in Iowa and Ohio voted 90% for Bush. Bush gained more Black votes in Ohio as a percentage than in any other state; he won 400,000 Black Votes (mostly evangelical conservative middle class and rural African Americans). He won that state by 100,000 votes. Don’t discount the family vote, the pro-life vote the values voters. I know Red State America; I live in the Western most fringe of the Bible belt (a Republican stronghold in the increasingly Left Coast California.
Democrats take Wisconsin and Michigan for granted but both states are tending Republican due to the loss of population in inner cities.
2000 WISCONSIN 48% BUSH 2004 49% BUSH
2000 Michigan 46% Bush 2004 48% Bush
2000 Pennsylvania 46% Bush 2004 49% Bush
2000 Ohio 50% Bush 2004 51% BUSH
20000 Virginia 53% Bush 2004 54% BUSH
2000 Indiana 57% Bush 2004 60 % Bush
What do ALL THESE STATES HAVE IN COMMON?
1) a declining African-American population as a percentage of the population; African Americans are very important in Democratic primaries (24% of all Delegates this year) but are a shrinking portion of the electorate.
2) All these states have a strong Evangelical Protestant and a large Catholic population. As everybody knows serious Catholics (like myself) have been abandoning the Democratic party in great numbers beginning in 1972. (Everyone in my family WITHOUT EXCEPTION voted for Humphrey, Johnson and Kennedy) Republicans make pro-family pro-life conservatives welcome in a way Democrats do not.
3) These states all have (like Alaska) a high percentage of veterans and volunteers for military service. Military personnel and veterans are much more likely to vote Republican because the Democratic party is no longer seen as a strong nationalist or patriotic party. Republicans make veterans welcome in a way Democrats do not.
4) The Democratic party has not won a majority of WHITE MALE VOTERS since…..1964,,,,,that is an amazing fact…in EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1964 the percentage of WHITE MALES who vote Democratic HAS DECLINED. At present the polls show more than 50% of White women favor McCain. More than 60% of married couples favor McCain. These numbers must be worrisome for the Obama and CO. American is not a one party state like Cook County (Chicago).
OBAMA has never faced a competitive race IN HIS ENTIRE (brief career). He will find out that the USA is not a one party state like Cook Country.
Republicans and Independents ARE the majority of the country. The race will be decided by women and Independents. It will be close. But for the first time we can say McCain is slightly favored. There will be no landslide for Obama that is for sure.
No the question is? Will his campaign melt down entirely?
One last observation. The Quebquois party came close to voting for independence in Canada just a few years ago. They got 49% of the vote. Since then their support is eroding year by year. Why?
Immigrants to Canada have no interest in seceding from the Canadian confederation. And French Canadians have become European in their birthrates. So they have peaked as a political power. 90% of new immigrants to Quebec want to remain in the Confederation. DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY. We are witnessing the same Roe effect in the USA as well. Obama might wish when it all is over that HE had had five children and had not been such a strong supporter of Planned Parenthood and abortions. God favors the Big Batallions.
Richard K. Munro